There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Lots of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps which might be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. Simply because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With new88 nc that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For example, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help in the long run. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.